2025 Charles Schwab Challenge
Course Breakdown and Favorite Plays
Tournament Details:
Location: Colonial Country Club, Fort Worth, Texas
Course: Par 70, 7,289 yards
Greens: Bentgrass
Field: 135 players
Cut: Top 65 and ties
Purse: $9.5 million; $1.71 million to the winner
“I feel like the key to this place is putting the ball in the fairway, because it’s long, but if you’re hitting the fairways, there’s a little bit of run out, so you have some scoring clubs in your hands. If you’re able to execute the shots from the fairways you’re going to have some decent looks. I feel like I was hitting the ball in the fairway for the most part of the day and hitting my irons good and giving myself good looks and I had the putter rolling, so I feel like just a lot of fairways and greens and then rolling [in putts].”
-- Davis Riley, 2024 Charles Schwab Challenge Champion
Course Breakdown: Colonial Country Club
Oh, a golf tournament in Texas? Real original! The PGA Tour is back in the Lone Star State for the fourth time in two months. I get it—there are weather concerns early in the year, and scheduling around sponsors and travel logistics is tricky. But still... can’t we do better? When my wife asks me on the weekend, “Where are they playing this week?” I’d love to occasionally give her an answer that isn’t Southern California, Texas, or Florida.
Part of the joy of watching golf is taking in the scenery—the landscape, the architecture, the feel of a place. It’s a real disservice to fans that we rarely get to see the game played across the country in places with their own distinct character. Golf looks and feels different in the Northeast, the Midwest, the Mountain West—and it’s a shame we don’t get to showcase that more often.
That said, I do like Colonial. I enjoy a classic course that can still stand up to the test of modern golf. Colonial Country Club (par 70, 7,289 yards) is a classic, tree-lined track that annually ranks among the tougher stops on the PGA Tour, with winning scores often in the single digits. The main challenge here is a combination of narrow fairways (~27–30 yards wide) and small greens. It’s heavily treelined and features doglegs on 12 of the 18 holes, which punish inaccurate drives by forcing players to shape shots around trees from fairly penal Bermuda rough.
While birdies are possible early (par-5 1st and short par-4 2nd), they dry up fast once players hit the “Horrible Horseshoe”—a brutal three-hole stretch (3–5) that includes two 475+ yard par-4s and one of the longest par-3s on Tour. There are only two par-5s, and the 639-yard 11th is a true three-shot hole.
Approach play is the most important stat here, especially from 125–200 yards where most second shots land. SG: Approach, Fairways Gained, and Good Drives Gained are all excellent indicators. Missed greens are common (~56% GIR), and players will need a solid short game to hang around on the weekend.
Colonial consistently rewards veterans who know how to navigate the layout. Previous success at Colonial has basically been a prerequisite to winning here. Leaderboards tend to feature more guys who profile as fairway finders than bombers.
This is the kind of week where I’m leaning on veterans, sharp approach play (particularly short to mid irons), and guys who’ve shown comfort on positional tracks.
Picks and Favorite Plays
* in Recent Form guide indicates an elevated field (Signature Event, Players, or Major)
PLAY OF THE WEEK
Daniel Berger (22-1 / 9,900 DK)
Course History: 45 - 23 - 20 - 1 - 53 - MC
2025 PGA Tour Results: 33* - 11* - 3* - 21* - 30 - 20* - 15* - 25 - 12* - 2 - MC - 21 - MC
The 2020 Charles Schwab champion returns to one of his most comfortable setups. All four of Berger’s PGA Tour wins have come on shorter, positional tracks—Colonial, TPC Southwind, Pebble Beach—and his two best finishes since returning from a back injury came on similar layouts: T-3 at Harbour Town (RBC Heritage) and T-2 at Sea Island (RSM Classic).
His ball-striking is peaking at the right time. He has gained 4.3+ strokes on approach in three straight starts against elite competition (Heritage, Truist, PGA)—by far his best stretch with the irons since 2021.
Equally important: his driving accuracy is a perfect fit for Colonial. He ranked 6th in SG: Off-the-Tee at Quail Hollow and sits 2nd in this field in Good Drives Gained over the past 24 rounds. Colonial demands precision off the tee, and Berger will be playing from the fairway as much as anyone—setting up that dialed-in iron game.
The short game has cooled after a strong start to the year. Berger gained strokes both putting and around the green in six straight events to open the season but has lost in one or both categories in every start since the Masters. Still, he finished T-3 at Harbour Town despite losing strokes on the greens—proof he can contend even without a hot putter.
Berger knows how to work his way around Colonial, and if the short game rebounds, he is absolutely live. He’ll be a very popular one-and-done play for good reason.
AMONGST THE FAVORITES
Scottie Scheffler (+240 / 13,700 DK)
Course History: 2 - 3 - 2 - MC - 55
2025 PGA Tour Results: 1* - 1* - 8* - 4* - 2 - 20* - 11* - 33* - 25 - 9*
Good at golf. Genuinely didn’t seem to be playing all that well (relative to his own ability) aside from a hot back nine on Saturday—but still managed to win a major championship by five strokes.
There are a lot of guys in golf who contend by consistently doing everything well. Broadcasts love to say, “This guy has no weaknesses.” Tommy Fleetwood and Russell Henley come to mind. Scottie kind of fits that mold—but he is the superhuman version, elite in every category.
He wasn’t spectacular in any one area at Quail Hollow, but he was very, very good across the board—ranking between 5th and 8th in SG: Off-the-Tee, Approach, and Around-the-Green, while also gaining 2.6 strokes putting.
After winning his last two starts by a combined 11 strokes, he returns to the Dallas area for another home game at a course where he is finished 2nd, 3rd, and 2nd the last three years. Even if he brings his B-game this week, it still might just be a competition for second.
Harris English (35-1 / 9,200 DK)
Course History: MC - 12 - MC - 20 - 29 - 2 - 30 - MC - 5
2025 PGA Tour Results: 2* - 11* - 66* - 12* - 18 - 30* - MC* - 24* - 73* - 1 - 43 - MC
Harris English was nails at the PGA Championship, finishing solo second and ranking 2nd in the field in SG: Approach (+7.8). He could’ve made things interesting down the stretch if not for a few short game miscues—three shots from a bunker and a four-putt from 40 feet—that led to costly double bogeys.
Colonial sets up nicely for him. He was runner-up here in 2016, finished 5th in 2012, and has three other top-30s on the résumé. He is proven on these greens too, having gained 8+ strokes putting at Colonial twice. That, paired with his current ball-striking form, makes him a serious threat. He ranks 3rd in Good Drives Gained over the past 24 rounds—keeping it in play and setting up scoring chances.
He has always been comfortable on shorter, classical layouts, with wins at comparable venues like TPC Southwind and River Highlands. Motivation won’t be an issue—he is firmly in the Ryder Cup conversation and knows another strong result would go a long way.
Aaron Rai (30-1 / 9,100 DK)
Course History: 32 - 12 - 68
2025 PGA Tour Results: 19* - 23* - 38* - 27* - MC - 14* - 11* - 4 - 37* - 40* - MC
Hoping to capitalize on some hot iron play. Rai led the PGA Championship in SG: Approach last week, gaining 8.2 strokes against an elite field. He continues to rank near the top of the Tour in fairways hit and should give himself plenty of clean looks to capitalize with those irons.
He has made the cut in all three starts at Colonial but hasn’t seriously contended, mostly due to ice-cold putting. The flat stick is rarely a strength, but it’s been serviceable at times this season—and that might be all he needs on a narrow setup that rewards his elite level of precision.
His lone PGA Tour win came last August at Sedgefield, another tight, tree-lined par-70, and this feels like another setup where he could win—or finish second to Scottie. He is also one of several players still fighting for a spot on the European Ryder Cup team, which should help keep him locked in week to week.
MID-TIER OPTIONS
Davis Riley (55-1 / 8,600 DK)
Course History: 1 - MC - 4
2025 PGA Tour Results: 2* - MC - 45 - 21 - 52 - 7 - 38 - 6 - 48 - MC - MC - MC - MC
The defending champion at Colonial and fresh off a runner-up finish at last week’s PGA Championship. This seems fairly obvious pick—but if you’ve been following this Substack for a while, you know he has been trending toward something big for a while now.
Riley clearly loves playing golf at Colonial. He won here last year by five strokes and finished T-4 in 2022. The track suits his eye, and even with the added pressure of defending, he enters this week playing much better golf than he was in either of his previous trips.
Sure, there’s some letdown risk after the emotional high of contending at a major and the added demands of returning as the champ—but he clearly has a real affinity for this golf course and I’m more than comfortable using him given his recent form.
Thorbjørn Olesen (70-1 / 7,700 DK)
Course History: N/A
2025 PGA Tour Results: 33* - 7 - 29 - 5* - MC - 36 - MC
Seven-time DP World Tour winner who’s starting to look like he might be ready for a breakthrough on the PGA Tour. He has made four straight cuts and has two top-7 finishes in his last four starts.
He was excellent tee-to-green at Quail Hollow, gaining 4.9 strokes on approach and driving it extremely accurately—two key ingredients again this week. The putter abandoned him (T-33 finish), but there’s reason for optimism as he returns to his preferred Bentgrass surface, on which he gained 3 strokes putting earlier this month just down the road at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson.
Proven winner in Europe, trending in the right direction, and should be a strong fit for the precision-heavy setup at Colonial.
Eric Cole (90-1 / 7,300 DK)
Course History: MC - MC
2025 PGA Tour Results: 41* - 34* - 5 - 18* - 26 - 15 - 12 - MC* - 50* - MC - MC* - MC - 22* - 68 - 68 - 5
Starting to regain form after a slow start to the season. The 2022/23 Rookie of the Year has made seven straight cuts, gaining strokes on approach in every one of them. The short game is always reliable, and Colonial is the kind of course where his lack of distance won’t be a liability.
He finished T-5 earlier this month down the road at the Byron Nelson, gaining 5.5 strokes on approach and 3.9 putting in a similar-strength field.
The two missed cuts at Colonial don’t help the case, but the course fit still makes sense. Cole has had success on similar short, accuracy courses, with top-7 finishes at Sea Island (RSM), Sedgefield (Wyndham), TPC Deere Run, and PGA National (Honda). He fits the mold and is trending well enough to compete in Texas again.
Pierceson Coody (90-1 / 7,200 DK)
Course History: 5
2025 PGA Tour Results: 25 - 31 - 52 - 40 - MC - MC
Pierceson, twin of Parker, earned his first career PGA Tour top-5 right here at Colonial last year. The highly decorated former Texas Longhorn grew up less than an hour away and knows this course as well as anyone in the field.
His overall profile is still coming together, but he is on a solid run—four straight made cuts on Tour, plus three top-10s on the Korn Ferry Tour earlier this season. Driving accuracy has improved, and he has shown enough flashes with the irons to suggest more upside is coming.
The statistical case might not be strong enough on most weeks, but the local comfort and proven success at Colonial make him one of the more compelling punts on the board.
INTRIGUING LONG SHOTS
Henrik Norlander (120-1 / 6,800 DK)
Course History: MC - 50 - MC - 73
2025 PGA Tour Results: MC* - 7 - 39 - 18* - 12 - 4 - 36 - 48 - 34 - MC - 15 - MC
Over the past 24 rounds, Henrik Norlander ranks 2nd in this field in SG: Approach, trailing only Scottie Scheffler in iron play. Even more compelling—he us 1st in the field from 125–175 yards during that time frame, which covers a huge percentage of approach shots at Colonial.
Norlander has always been a strong iron player, but the putter has historically held him back. Lately, though, it’s been trending in the right direction. He has gained strokes putting in four of his last six starts, including an average of +4.2 strokes in his last two appearances on Bentgrass greens in Texas—an elite mark.
He’s short off the tee, but like many players we’re targeting this week, he is extremely accurate. He is capable of leading the field in greens in regulation, and if the putter continues to perform, a top-10 (or better) finish is absolutely in play.
Sami Välimäki (150-1 / 6,900 DK)
Course History: MC
2025 PGA Tour Results: MC* - 7 - 39 - 18* - 12 - 4 - 36 - 48 - 34 - MC - 15 - MC
Giving him a pass for the bad missed cut at the PGA Championship—it’s a course that doesn’t really suit his game. But his elite combination of approach play and putting dating back to February deserves real consideration at a track where both are critical.
Big Sami is 7th in this field in SG: Approach over the past 24 rounds and ranks inside the top-10 in key proximity ranges over that time frame. Prior to the PGA, he had gained strokes putting in 10 of 11 starts, and gained between 1.8 and 5.8 strokes in eight of those. Driving accuracy could be a concern, but lack of distance won’t hurt him here. He likes to shape the ball, which should play nicely at Colonial where doglegs are constant and working it both ways is a must.
The Davis Riley quote feels hilariously obvious.